Articles & Working papers

2022

Corsetti, Giancarlo and Mackowiak, Bartosz (2022): Gambling to preserve price (and fiscal) stability, RSC Working paper 71.
Corsetti, Giancarlo; Dedola, Luca and Leduc, Sylvain (2022): Exchange Rate Misalignment and External Imbalances: What is the Optimal Monetary Policy Response?, RSC working paper 72
Corsetti, Giancarlo; Crowley, Meredith; Han, Lu (2022): Invoicing and the dynamics of pricing-to-market: Evidence from UK export prices around the Brexit referendum, Journal of International Economics, 135, 2022.
Codogno, Lorenzo and Corsetti, Giancarlo (2022) ‘Shifts in expectations may undermine debt sustainability‘, VOXeu Column, 3 Nov 2022.
Codogno, Lorenzo and Corsetti, Giancarlo (2022) ‘Debt sustainability analysis is back. Sudden shifts in underlying factors may push high-debt countries into a bad equilibrium‘, Economia Italiana, n. 2/2022.

2021

Marimon, Ramon and Adrien Wicht (2021) “Euro area fiscal policies and capacity in post-pandemic times”, European Parliament, Economic Governance Support Unit, 2021, PE 651.392
Marimon, Ramon (2021) “Lessons from the Great Financial Crisis in perspective”, in Y. Cassis and J.J. van Helten (Eds.) The Legacy of the Global Financial Crisis, Bloomsbury.
Gaballo, Gaetano and Ramon Marimon (2021) “Breaking the Spell with Credit-Easing: Self- Confirming Credit Crises in Competitive Search Economies”, Journal of Monetary economics, 2021,119, 1-20.

Other working papers under revision:

Díaz-Saavedra, Julián, Ramon Marimon and João Broguiera de Sousa (2021) “A worker’s Backpack as an Alternative to PAYG Pension Systems”.
Ferrari, Alessandro, Ramon Marimon and Chima Simpson-Bell (2021) “Fiscal and Currency Union with Default and Exit”.
Liu, Yan, Ramon Marimon and Adrien Wicht (2021) “Making Sovereign Debt Safe with a Financial Stability Fund”.
Clancy, Daragh, Aitor Erce, Andreja Lenarcic and Ramon Marimon (2021) “Conditionality in Official Lending: Compliance through strategic assessment”.

2020

Joaquín Almunia and Ramon Marimon (8 October 2020), Article on El País: ‘The design of the Monetary and Economic Union turns 50’ (El diseño de la Unión Monetaria y Económica)
Cooley, Thomas, Ramon Marimon and Vincenzo Quadrini (2020) “Commitment in Organisations and the Competition for Talent”, The Review of Economic Studies, 2020, 87(5), 2165-2204.
Tsiaras, Stylianos (2020) “Asset Purchases, Limited Asset Markets Participation and Inequality”, EUI-MWP-PWC

2019

Marimon, Ramon and Albert Marcet (2019) “Recursive Contracts”, Econometrica, Vol. 87, No. 5, pp.1589-1631
Molteni, F. (2019), “Liquidity, Government Bonds and Sovereign Debt Crises”, MWP Working Paper 2019/02, EUI
Marimon, R. (2019), “Feasible and Much Needed Reforms for the EMU: The European Stability Fund et al.”, RSCAS Policy Paper 2019/07, Special Edition for the European Parliament Elections,
EUI

2018

Ábrahám, Árpád, João Broguiera de Sousa, Ramon Marimon and Lukas Mayr (2018) “On the Design of a European Unemployment Insurance Mechanism” , ADEMU WP2018/106
Díaz-Saavedra, Julián, Ramon Marimon and João Broguiera de Sousa (2018) “Introducing an Austrian Backpack in Spain”, ADEMU WP2018/139.
Poeschl, Zhang, Housing, Financial Crises and Macroprudential Regulation: The Case of Spain – May 2018
Bayer, Kim, Kriwoluzky, The Term Structure of Redomination Risk – May 2018
Gourinchas, Martin, Messer, The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and the Eurozone Crisis – May 2018
Dolado, Motyovszki, Pappa, Monetary Policy and Inequality under Labor Market Frictions and Capital-Skill Complementarity – May 2018
Dedola, Georgiadis, Grab, Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates – May 2018

2017

Beukers, Thomas and Bruno de Witte and Claire Kilpatrick, “Constitutional change through Euro-crisis law: taking stock, new perspectives and looking ahead”, in: Beukers, De Witte and Kilpatrick (eds.), Constitutional Change Through Euro-Crisis Law (Cambridge University Press, 2017) p. 1-24.
Beukers, Thomas and Marijn van der Sluis, “Different Integration from the Perspective of Non-Euro Area Member States”, in: Beukers, De Witte and Kilpatrick (eds.), Constitutional Change Through Euro-Crisis Law (Cambridge University Press, 2017) p. 143-176.
Beukers, Thomas, “The Eurozone Crisis and the Autonomy of Member States in Economic Union: Changes and Challenges, in: Research Handbook on the Law of the EU’s Internal Market (Edgar Elgar Publishing, 2017) p. 263-288
Lanati, Mauro, “ The impact of foreign aid on migration revisited,” Max Weber Programme WP 2017/05
Steinbach, Armin, “ Insurance-type Coordination under EU Law,” 28 Swiss Review of International and European Law 19-40 (2017).
Steinbach, Armin, “ Effect-based Analysis in the Jurisprudence on the Euro Crisis,” 42 European Law Review 255-270 (2017).
Steinbach, Armin, “ All’s well that ends well? Crisis policy after the German Constitutional Court’s ruling,” in Gauweiler, 24 Maastricht Journal of European and Comparative Law 140-149 (2017).
Steinbach, Armin, “ Promoting Coherence Between PTAs and the WTO Through Systemic Integration,” Journal of International Economic Law 20 (2017) 61-85 (with Pamela Apaza).

2016

Gaballo, G. & Marimon, R. (2016), Breaking the spell with credit-easing: self-confirming credit crises in competitive search economies, ADEMU Working Paper; 2016/001
Kapetanios, George, Khalaf, L. & Marcellino, M. (2016), ‘ Factor based identification-robust inference in IV regressions’, Journal of applied econometrics, Vol. 31, No. 5, pp. 821–842
Steinbach, Armin, “ Structural Reforms in EU Member States: Exploring Sanction-based and Reward-based Mechanism,” ADEMU Working Paper; 2016/040.
Steinbach, Armin, “ Promoting Coherence Between PTAs and the WTO Through Systemic Integration,” RSCAS Working Paper; 2016

2015

Canova, Fabio; Perez-Forero, Fernando; “ A General Algorithm for Estimating Structural VARs”, Quantitative Economics, 2015, 6(2).
Canova, Fabio; Schlaepfer, Alain; “ Has the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership changed Mediterranean Business Cycles?” – Appendix, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 03/2015, 30(2).
Marcellino, Massimiliano; Carriero, Andrea; Todd, Clark; “ Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecasting Performance”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2015, 30, 46-73.
Marcellino, Massimiliano; Foroni, Claudia; Schumacher, Christian; “ U-MIDAS: MIDAS regressions with unrestricted lag polynomial”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 2015, Series A, 178, 57-82.
Marcellino, Massimiliano; Bulligan, Guido; Venditti, Fabrizio; “ Forecasting economic activity with targeted predictors”, International Journal of Forecasting, 2015, 31, 188-206.
Marcellino, Massimiliano; Lemke, Wolfgang; Eickmeier, Sandra; “ A Classical Time Varying FAVAR Model: Estimation, Forecasting, and Structural Analysis”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 2015, Series A, 178, 57-82.

2014

Bridging DSGE Models and the Raw Data, Fabio Canova, “Journal of Monetary Economics”, 2014, vol. 67, issue C, 1-15.
A General Algorithm for Estimating Structural VARs, Fabio Canova and F. Perez-Forero, “Quantitative Economics”, Volume 6, Issue 2 (July 2015)
The effects of the monetary policy stance on the transmission mechanism, Massimiliano Marcellino with Ana Galvao, “Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics”, 2014, vol. 18(3).
Forecasting with Factor Augmented Error Correction Models, Massimiliano Marcellino, Anindya Banerjee and Igor Masten, “International Journal of Forecasting”, 2014, vol. 30, 589-612.

2013

Pooling Versus Model Selection for Nowcasting GDP with Many Predictors: Empirical Evidence for six Industrialized Countries , Journal of Applied Econometrics Massimiliano Marcellino, Vladimir Kuzin and Christian Schumacher, 2013
Forecasting with Factor Augmented Error Correction Models , International Journal of Forecasting ,
Massimiliano Marcellino, Anindya Banerjee and Igor Masten, 2013
Markov Switching MIDAS Models , Journal of Business and Economic Statistics Massimiliano Marcellino and Pierre Guérin, 2013
The Effects of the Monetary Policy Stance on the Transmission Mechanism , Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Massimiliano Marcellino and Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2013
Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecasting Performance , Journal of Applied Econometrics , Massimiliano Marcellino, Andrea Carriero and Todd Clark, 2013
The multiscale causal dynamics of foreign exchange markets ”, Journal of International Money and Finance , 33, 282-305
Massimiliano Marcellino and Stelios Bekiros, 2013
Massimiliano Marcellino; Mario Porqueddu; Fabrizio Venditti, “Short-term GDP forecasting with a mixed frequency dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility” Banca d’Italia , Temi di Discussione, 896, 2013
Choosing the Variables to Estimate Singular DSGE Models Fabio Canova, Filippo Ferroni and Christian Matthes, 2013
How Important is Tourism for the International Transmission of Cyclical Fluctuations? Evidence from the Mediterranean Fabio Canova and Pietro Dallari, 2013
Forecasting Economic Activity with Higher Frequency Targeted Predictors Claudia Foroni and Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013

2012

The Banking and Distribution Sectors in a Small Open Economy DSGE Model Szabolcs Deak, Lionel Lionel, Marco Maffezzoli and Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012
An Estimated DSGE Model of a Small Open Economy within the Monetary Union: Forecasting and Structural Analysis Massimiliano Marcellino and Yuliya Rychalovska, 2012
A Comparison of Mixed Frequency Approaches for Modelling Euro Area Macroeconomic Variables Claudia Foroni and Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012
Macroeconomic Forecasting during the Great Recession: The Return of Non-Linearity? Laurent Ferrara, Massimiliano Marcellino and Matteo Mogliani, 2012
Massimiliano Marcellino; Guido Bulligan and Fabrizio Venditti “Forecasting economic activity with targeted predictors”, Banca d’Italia, Temi di Discussione, 847
Elena Carletti; Franklin Allen; Douglas Gale “Money, Financial Stability and Efficiency”, Journal of Economic Theory , 2012
Elena Carletti; Franklin Allen “What’s Systemic Risk?”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking , 2012
Elena Carletti; Franklin Allen; Ana Babus “Asset Commonality, Debt Maturity and Systemic Risk”, Journal of Financial Economics , 2012, 104(3), 519-534
Carriero, Andrea; Kapetanios, George; Marcellino, Massimiliano “Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Large Bayesian VARs”, Journal of Banking and Finance , 2012, 36(7), 2026-2047.
Demertzis, Maria; Marcellino, Massimilinao; Viegi, Nicola “ A Credibility Proxi: Tracking US Monetary Developments ”, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics , Topics, 2012, 12(1).

2011

Allen, Franklin; Carletti, Elena; Marquez, Robert; “Credit Market Competition and Capital Regulation” Review of Financial Studies, 2011, 24(4), 983–1018, lead article
Allen, Franklin; Carletti, Elena; Leonello, Agnese, “Deposit Insurance and Risk Taking” (with), Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2011, 27(3), 464-478
Allen, Franklin; “New Theories to Underpin Financial Reform”, Journal of Financial Stability, forthcoming – 2011
Carriero, Andrea; Kapetanios, George; Marcellino, Massimiliano “ Forecasting Large Datasets with Bayesian Reduced Rank Multivariate Models ”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2011, 26, 736-761.
Kuzin, Vladimir; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Schumaker, Christian “MIDAS vs Mixed-Frequency VAR for Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area”, International Journal of Forecasting , 2011, 27, 529-542.
Carriero, Andrea “Sectoral survey-based confidence indicators for Europe”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , 73, 175–206.
Musso, Alberto “The Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap”, with, Economic Modelling , 2011, 28, 1842–1856.
Frale, Cecilia; Mazzi, Gianluigi; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Proietti, Tommaso “EUROMIND: A Monthly Indicator of the Euro Area Economic Conditions” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society , 2011, Series A, 174, 439-470.
Angelini, Elena; Marcellino, Massimiliano “Econometric Analyses with Backdated Data: Unified Germany and the Euro Area”, Economic Modelling , 2011, 28, 1405–1414.
Deak, Szabolcs; Fontagné, Lionel; Maffezzoli, Marco; Marcellino, Massimiliano “LSM: A DSGE Model for Luxembourg”, Economic Modelling , 2011, 28, 2862–2872.
Kuzin Vladimir; Marcellino Massimiliano; Schumaker Christian; ‘MIDAS vs Mixed-Frequency VAR for Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area’, with, International Journal of Forecasting, 2011, 27, 529-542.
Carriero Andrea; Marcellino Massimiliano; ‘Sectoral survey-based confidence indicators for Europe’ Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2011, 73, 175–206.
Marcellino Massimiliano; Musso Alberto; ‘The Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap’ with, Economic Modelling, 2011, 28, 1842–1856.
Frale Cecilia; Marcellino Massimiliano; Mazzi Gianluigi; Proietti Tommaso; ‘EUROMIND: A Monthly Indicator of the Euro Area Economic Conditions’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 2011, 174, 439-470.

2010

Empirical Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Path-Forecasts ,
Massimiliano Marcellino, Oscar Jorda and Malte Knueppel, 2010
Corsetti, Giancarlo; Meier, André; Müller, Gernot J., ‘Cross-Border Spillovers from Fiscal Stimulus’, International Journal of Central Banking, 2010, 6, 1, 5-37.
Corsetti, Giancarlo; Kuester, Keith; Meier, André, Müller, Gernot; ‘Debt Consolidation and Fiscal Stabilization of Deep Recessions’, American Economic Review, 2010, 100(2), 41-45.
Optimal Currency Area Revisited (Distinguished Lecture held at the EUI) Yves Mersch, 2011
The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks Sandra Eickmeier, Wolfgang Lemke and Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011
On the Importance of Sectoral and Regional Shocks for Price-Setting Guenter Beck, Kirstin Hubrich and Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011

2008

Corsetti, Giancarlo; ‘A Modern Reconsideration of the Theory of Optimal Currency Areas’, European Economy Economic Papers, 2008, 308, 1-39.
Corsetti, Giancarlo et.al., ‘Proceedings of the Twenty-second Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, Budapest, August 2007’, Journal of the European Economic Association, 2008, 6, 2-3, 255-726.
Corsetti, Giancarlo; Dedola, Luca; Leduc, Sylvain; ‘International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks’, Review of Economic Studies, 2008, 75, 2, 443-473.
Corsetti, Giancarlo; Mueller, Gernot; ‘Twin Deficits, Openness, and the Business Cycle’, Journal of the European Economic Association, 2008, 6(2-3), 404-413.
Corsetti, Giancarlo; Bergin, Paul; ‘The Extensive Margin and Monetary Policy’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008, 55, 7, 1222-1237.
Corsetti, Giancarlo; Dedola, Luca; Leduc, Sylvain; ‘High Exchange Rate Volatility and Low Pass-through’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008 55(6), 1113-1128, previously CEPR dp 5377.

2007

Corsetti, Giancarlo; Martin, Philippe; Pesenti, Paolo; ‘Productivity Spillovers, Terms of Trade and the ‘Home Market Effect’’, Journal of International Economics, 2007, 73(1): 99-127. Previously DP 4964, NBER WP 11165.
Corsetti, Giancarlo; Mueller, Gernot; ‘Twin deficit, Openness and the Business Cycle’, prepared for the 2007 EEA Meeting in Budapest, CEPR discussion paper no. 4769, 2007, Journal of European Economic Association 2008, 6, 2-3, 404-413.

2006 and earlier

Corsetti, Giancarlo; Mackowiak, Bartosz; ‘Fiscal Imbalances and the Dynamics of Currency Crises’, European Economic Review, 2006, 50, 1317-1338.
Corsetti, Giancarlo; Guimaraes, Bernardo; Roubini, Nouriel; ‘International Lending of Last Resort and Moral Hazard: A Model of IMF’s Catalytic Finance’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2006, 53, 441-471.
Corsetti, Giancarlo; ‘Openness and the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates’, Research in Economics, 2006, 60, 1-21.
Corsetti, Giancarlo; Mueller, Gernot; ‘Twin Deficits: Squaring Theory Evidence and Common Sense’, Economic Policy, 2006, 48, 597-638.
Corsetti, Giancarlo; Dedola, Luca; Leduc, Sylvain; ‘Productivity, External Balance and Exchange Rates: Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism Among G7 Countries’, in Lucrezia Reichlin and Kennet West (eds.), NBER International Seminar on Microeconomics, 2006. (Also CEPR Discussion Paper 5853, NBER Working Paper 12483).
The Simple Geometry of Transmission and Stabilization in Closed and Open Economies Giancarlo Corsetti and Paolo Pesenti, 2005
Towards a Theory of Firm Entry and Stabilization Policy Paul Bergin and Giancarlo Corsetti, 2005
DSGE Models of High Exchange-Rate Volatility and Low Pass-Through Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola and Sylvain Leduc, 2005
Current Account Theory and the Dynamics of US Net Foreign Liabilities Giancarlo Corsetti and Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2005
International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola and Sylvain Leduc, 2004
The Eastward Enlargement of the European Monetary Union Michele Ca’ Zorzi and Roberto A. De Santis, 2004
Nominal versus Real Convergence with Respect to EMU Accession: How to Cope with the Balassa-Samuelson Dilemma Paul De Grauwe and Gunther Schnabl, 2004
The Inflation Target of the ECB: Does the Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter? Kirsten Lommatzsch and Silke Tober, 2004
Exchange Rate Strategies towards EMU for Accession Countries with Currency Boards Margarita Katsimi, 2004
Exchange Rate Policies and Institutional Arrangements in the Transition Process to European Monetary Union Peter Bofinger, 2004
The Endogenity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Trade, and Labour Market Rigidities: Implications for EMU Enlargement Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004
Designing Poland’s Macroeconomic Strategy on the Way to the Euro Area Jakub Borowski and Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2004
Macroeconomic and Monetary Thought at the European Commission in the 1960s Ivo Maes, 2004
Could Politicians Be More Right Than Economists? A Theory of Merger Standards Bruce R. Lyons, 2003
France and Italy’s Policies on European Monetary Integration: A Comparison of ‘Strong’ and ‘Weak’ States Ivo Maes and Lucia Quaglia, 2003
Towards a European Budgetary System Marco Buti and Mario Nava, 2003